The United States and Russia are very close to engaging in “direct military conflict,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned in an interview published Friday in a Turkey daily, just days ahead of a US presidential election.

“Under the current president (Joe Biden), who has taken the downward spiral of Russophobia in the US to its logical conclusion, our countries are on the brink of direct military conflict,” he told the Hurriyet daily, without elaborating.

Asked about next week’s US election pitting former Republican president Donald Trump against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, Lavrov said the outcome would make little difference to Russia.

“We have no preference. When the Trump administration was in power, it adopted the highest number of anti-Russian sanctions compared to its predecessors,” he said.

“No matter who wins the elections, we don’t think the United States’ anti-Russian bent can change.”

Although Trump has previously made clear his fondness for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the two men are not close and have maintained a deliberately ambiguous relationship.

Last week, the Russian president said his relationship with Washington would depend on what attitude it adopts after the vote, as he welcomed as “sincere” Trump’s remarks about wanting to end the Ukraine conflict.

Expert Views

The escalating tension between the U.S. and Russia signals a potential for direct conflict that could significantly disrupt global stability. Military experts emphasize that such a confrontation would divide the world into camps reminiscent of the Cold War, where nations align based on historical loyalties and geopolitical interests.

Dr. Fiona Hill, a former U.S. national security official, warns that countries may feel pressured to choose sides, heightening tensions and leading to a polarized international relations.

Statistics indicate that both the U.S. and Russia maintain extensive nuclear arsenals—approximately 5,800 and 6,375 nuclear warheads, respectively, as of 2023. This reality raises concerns about the potential for catastrophic casualties should conflict arise. Furthermore, historical precedents suggest that global economies could face severe disruptions, similar to the economic downturns seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Experts like Dr. Stephen Walt from Harvard University equally pointed out that the potential for a new Cold War carries risks of military miscalculations that could escalate into broader conflicts. The lessons of history remind us that misunderstandings and miscommunications can lead to unintended consequences. As such, the implications of a direct U.S.-Russia conflict extend beyond military concerns, threatening to plunge the world into a geopolitical crisis that could reverberate through economies, international relations, and global security frameworks for decades to come.